DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/23 10:55
All Grains Higher at Midday
Corn is 2 to 4 cents higher, soybeans are 9 to 11 cents higher and wheat is
2 to 7 cents higher at midday Monday.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 140. The dollar index is 30
points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with
crude up $0.40. Livestock trade is sharply higher. Precious metals are weaker
with gold off $42.
Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents higher with spillover support from soybeans and
weaker spread action after gapping higher and scoring a new high by about a
penny overnight. In addition, USDA announced another export sale of 334,000
metric tons to unknown. Ethanol has lost some ground to unleaded, reducing the
premium. Meanwhile, margins remain fairly stable with short-term demand the
biggest issue going into the holiday week, along with further lockdowns on the
horizon. Basis remains generally strong. Weekly export inspections were in line
with last week at 832,637 metric tons, with harvest effectively complete. On
the December contract, support is the 20-day at $4.11 with the lower Bollinger
band at $3.94 as the next level down with the fresh high scored at $4.29 3/4
overnight and the upper Bollinger band at $4.32 above that.
Soybeans trade is 9 to 11 cents higher with a gap higher opening as more
weather concerns build for South America. The trade is also being supported by
continued demand expectations, though the daily wire remains quiet. Meal is
$1.50 to $2.50 higher, and oil is 35 to 45 points higher. South America has
some dry pockets building with northern Brazil looking to see more moisture
short term. The southern third is forecast to be very dry the next week. Wetter
weather is expected in Argentina after recent dryness. Basis remains strong as
we continue to work to max out our logistics capacity to ship the needed export
bushels with freight issues remaining in play. Weekly export inspections remain
strong at 2.01 million metric tons. The January chart has resistance at the
fresh high of $12 scored Monday morning, with the upper Bollinger band at
$12.17. Support is the 20-day at $11.20.
Wheat trade is 2 to 7 cents higher at midday with Chicago action leading
again. The wheat trade is following the lead of the row crops with little
change to U.S. Plains weather. The dollar has turned higher after early
weakness. World export tenders continue to go to Black Sea origin, for the most
part, with little change in overall conditions there. The western Plains look
to see some potential improvement, with the last USDA Crop Progress report
likely showing steady conditions for winter wheat. Weekly export inspections
rebounded a bit at 358,077 metric tons. KC is at 47-cent discount to Chicago
with spreads remaining rangebound. Minneapolis is at -53. KC December chart
resistance is the 20-day at $5.52, which we are just above overnight, and
support is the lower Bollinger band at $5.40.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
Editor's Note: Be among the first to hear DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman's
2021 market outlook and ask him questions live by attending the DTN Ag Summit,
Dec. 7-9. This year's event is virtual and as a DTN subscriber your
registration is FREE. That's a $99 savings and our thanks to you for being a
critical member of DTN. Our premier farmer and rancher event features markets
updates from Todd and livestock analyst ShayLe Stewart as well as our annual
weather outlook by Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson. Other speakers
include: U.S. Ambassador Kip Tom; Ken Eriksen and Paul Hughes of IHS Markit;
Microsoft Chief Scientist Ranveer Chandra; personal development speakers David
Horsager and Jon Gordon; farmers Reid and Heather Thompson; farm blogger
Meredith Bernard, and many more.
You can take part in it all from the comfort of your home, office or tractor
cab. Register at
enter code DTNVIP20 to get free access.
(c) Copyright 2020 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
For more free DTN information sent right to your email each morning - click here
to sign up for DTN Snapshot.